Storms and Showers Expected Across North Texas and Oklahoma Through the Weekend

Showers and storms are likely during the following three days, with chances rising later in the week, particularly this weekend.

Up first

The earliest chance of showers arrives late tonight and early tomorrow morning, largely to the southwest of our immediate area.

A warm front will attempt to lift across North Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.

As a mid-to-upper-level disturbance approaches the northwest upper airflow, scattered showers, and storms are predicted to develop along and north of this boundary, primarily throughout southwestern Oklahoma, south-central Oklahoma, and North Texas.

Wednesday Rain Zone

If the warm front pushes slightly further north than expected, a few showers or storms may impact the southwestern portion of our local area.

However, they are likely to avoid the Tulsa metropolitan region.

A handful of these storms may be strong to severe overnight into early Wednesday morning, with nickel-sized hail and devastating downburst wind gusts of up to 60 mph likely.

Thursday Morning Chances:

The warm front continues to climb northward, bringing a closer probability of precipitation early Thursday morning.

It is anticipated to position itself across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, while another upper-level disturbance approaches the area.

Scattered showers may form throughout far northern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas, but the chance of rain early Thursday morning remains low—around or below 20%.

This likelihood includes locations surrounding the Tulsa metro.

Friday Storm Chances: East

Another upper-level system is likely to form Thursday night in Texas and move northeast, bringing scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms to eastern Oklahoma on Friday.

The metro area has a 30% chance of rain and storms, but southeastern Oklahoma has a larger chance of heavy downpours.

The Weekend Outlook

Finally, a powerful upper-level system will approach from the west late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

While the exact course and timing of the system are unknown, thunderstorms are expected to persist from Saturday night to midday Sunday.

Severe weather is possible during this time period, including all types of severe weather, but forecasts differ on the trajectory and timing of this storm.

Currently, the probability on Saturday is around 20%, with 40% for Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

These probabilities are subject to change, so please check back periodically for changes.

A Sunday Cold Front

On Sunday morning, a surface low-pressure system will pass through northern Oklahoma, followed by a cold front that will sweep through the state’s east.

Storms that erupt on Sunday morning are likely to move quickly eastward into neighbouring states, increasing the potential of severe weather.

A little chill is expected beginning Sunday with highs in the upper 60s, followed by a more significant drop on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 50s, before another major storm system hits the area by mid-next week as warm and moist air returns, bringing more rain and thunderstorm chances.

Fire Spread Rates

Fire spread rates are likely to be low to moderate today and tomorrow owing to reduced winds.

However, heavier south winds from Thursday to Saturday, particularly on Thursday, may accelerate fire spread rates before low-level precipitation returns to the region.

The good news is that higher humidity this weekend should assist to reduce fire threats.