According to a mysterious Russian Telegram channel known as “General SVR” and Valery Solovey, a prominent Russian political analyst, the answer is yes.
In fact, it is claimed that the Russian president breathed his last on Thursday, Oct. 26. The Putin we currently see is purportedly his double, who has been filling in for the ailing real Putin for several months, according to Solovey.
Few Russian or Western analysts believe General SVR and Solovey, and some even suggest they might be the same person. They lack concrete evidence to support their sensational claims. While they offer detailed accounts of Putin’s alleged death to make their claims seem more believable, such elaborate narratives are often expected from imaginative individuals or secret police provocateurs.
The issue is that Solovey doesn’t come across as a crackpot or a dupe of the Federal Security Service. He possesses a sharp sense of humor, speaks eloquently, presents logical arguments, and generally appears as the kind of professor any student would admire. Apart from his claims about Putin’s death and the supposed exile of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the deceased head of the mercenary Wagner Group, to an island off the coast of Venezuela, his analyses of Russia’s internal politics are consistently insightful and intelligent.
So, if Solovey is neither a madman nor a puppet, he likely falls into one of two remaining categories.
As a potential opposition leader, he might be determined to sow confusion among Russian elites and the general population, making them question whether Putin is still alive and whether the person claiming to be Putin is genuine, thereby undermining Putin’s legitimacy.
With Russia’s presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, any doubts about Putin’s health and existence can complicate the Kremlin’s plans regarding who should run and by what margin they should win. Unsurprisingly, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, felt compelled to deny the rumors of Putin’s death and the existence of Putin doubles as fake news. However, Peskov’s reputation for not telling the truth makes his denial somewhat ambiguous.
The other possibility is that Solovey and General SVR are not truly independent democratic opposition figures as they claim. They may be agents of the security services or spokespeople for powerful elites who can provide Solovey with protection. The intended effect of the death claim would be the same — doubt, confusion, and delegitimization. However, if the instigators are establishment elites, this has more concerning implications for Putin and the political system.
Two democrats, even with a few others in Russia, can spread rumors, but they can’t upend the existing system. In contrast, elite efforts to delegitimize the current regime indicate a significant crack within what appears to be a monolithic regime to outside observers.
This suggests that the post-Putin power struggle has already begun, regardless of whether the real Putin is alive. The elites, both those supporting and opposing Putin, believe that Putin is too enfeebled, weak, or politically stagnant to make a difference.
The elites providing cover to Solovey may not be democratically inclined or may simply want to reform the existing Putinite system, rather than replacing it. Given Russia’s political culture and the population’s aversion to liberalism and democracy, it’s likely that Solovey’s protectors are conservative reformers who aim to eliminate the worst aspects of Putinism and end the conflict in Ukraine before the Russian death toll exceeds 300,000. Solovey himself describes his politics as liberal conservative, which may also describe his protectors.
Whether Putin is physically dead or alive, the controversy surrounding his alleged death shows that he’s in serious trouble. General SVR’s and Solovey’s claims have been read by hundreds of thousands of Russians, and many more are discussing them. Seeds of doubt about “the grandpa in the bunker,” as Putin’s critics call him, have been sown.
And just as the general and Solovey lack proof of Putin’s death, their critics lack proof of his life, as one can always claim that the man claiming to be the real Putin is a doppelganger.
Russian politics is becoming even more bizarre than usual. Get ready for surprises in the coming weeks and months.
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